HARLINGEN, Texas (KVEO) —The tropics have come alive again with two tropical waves in the Caribbean Sea. One of those waves will likely be a tropical depression by the weekend.
Invest 91L, as it is currently tagged, is currently in the west-central Caribbean as large disorganized showers and thunderstorms. As this area moves westward toward the Yucatan Peninsula, conditions are expected to become more conducive for development. Invest 91L will likely become a tropical depression by Saturday.
Tropical spaghetti models do show the eastward motion of Invest 91L, but the question is what happens beyond that. The American GFS model pushes Invest 91L in the Bay of Campeche after a weak frontal system. This would put Invest 91L in a decent position to bring the Rio Grande Valley some tropical moisture around Wednesday/Thursday next week.
A second tropical wave is located just east of the Lesser Antilles, and only has 20% chance of development over the next five days. Some of the models develop this wave slowly early next week as it moves into the central Gulf of Mexico and will be needed to watched down the road.
If one of these two storms were to form and get named, their names would be Gamma then Delta. Remember, we have graduated into the Greek alphabet due to number of tropical systems we have seen in 2020.
Of note, as we move into the month of October, the majority of tropical systems will form closer to North America and be influenced by cold fronts, like the one we just had.
Remnants of these fronts could turn into a tropical system or they could pick up and grab a tropical system and pull it eastward. With the said, it is harder for a tropical system to directly impact south Texas this time of year, but we still need to watch the tropics closely through the end of hurricane season.