HARLINGEN, Texas (ValleyCentral) — Scientists at Colorado State University (CSU) released their first forecast for the upcoming 2022 Atlantic hurricane season. They are expecting an above-normal season with 19 named storms, of which nine are forecast to be hurricanes and four reaching major hurricane status of Category 3 or stronger.
This forecast is very similar to what we actually experienced in 2021 where we had 21 named storms, of which 7 were hurricanes and 4 were major hurricanes.
The average numbers from 1991to 2020 are 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
Some factors that were considered in this initial CSU forecast were weak La Niña conditions that are expected to transition to neutral conditions, meaning not having significant La Nina or El Niño conditions by this summer/fall.
Always remember, it only takes one storm to hit the Rio Grande Valley to make it an active hurricane season for us. The Atlantic hurricane season begins on June 1 and ends on November 30. It is never too early to begin to prepare for the upcoming season.
CSU began issuing forecasts for each upcoming hurricane season 39 years ago. The forecasts were developed by the late William Gray who was the lead author for 20 years and continued as a co-author until 2016.