Harlingen, Texas (KVEO)—After more than a week with no threats, the tropics are starting to come alive with what looks to be an active last month of hurricane season.
The National Hurricane Center is watching a tropical wave in the western Caribbean Sea. This wave has a 10% chance of development over the next 2 days, but a 60% chance of development over the next 5 days as conditions become more favorable. The NHC expects this wave could become a tropical depression by the weekend as it nears the Yucatán.
Model forecasts take the wave into the Bay of Campeche by Tuesday/Wednesday next week. This will be something to watch in the Rio Grande Valley, as this was a similar location as Tropical Storm Beta was. Like Beta, a tropical system in that location could return rain chances to the RGV starting the middle of next week. You also notice a second storm in the Caribbean, as storm one moves into the Gulf.
While the GFS model fades away storm one in the Bay of Campeche the end of the next week, it does try and develop storm two. While this is NOT a forecast, the model does keep to the idea of busier tropics as we start October.
If one of these two storms were to form and get named, their names would be Gamma then Delta. Remember, we have graduated into the Greek alphabet due to number of tropical systems we have seen in 2020.
Of note, as we move into the month of October, the majority of tropical systems will form closer to North America and be influenced by cold fronts, like the one we just had. Remnants of these fronts could turn into the a tropical system or they could pick up and grab a tropical system and pull it eastward. With the said, it is harder for a tropical system to directly impact south Texas this time of year, but we still need to watch the tropics closely through the end of hurricane season.