HARLINGEN, Texas (ValleyCentral) — The buzz across the Rio Grande Valley is focusing on what is bumbling up in the Tropics. Where is it going and what will it be when it gets there? The answer to that question is coming into focus.
The National Hurricane Center is tracking three areas of low pressure, of those three, eyes are on the low in the Caribbean. This cluster of thunderstorms, labeled as Invest 99L, currently has a 50% chance of development over the next 2 days and an 80% chance over the next 5 days.
As this cluster of storms moves westward, it will be moving into a favorable area of development in the Gulf of Mexico and likely become at least a tropical storm by this coming weekend. Possibly, a hurricane early next week.
The track of Invest 99L will be dependent on the strength of high pressure to the north and east of the storm. A stronger high-pressure ridge will force the storm more west and south, a weaker ridge would mean the storm is more north and east. Right now, the trend has been a weaker ridge. That would force a track closer between Houston to Lake Charles, Louisiana, instead of between Corpus Christi and Port Lavaca. Simply, the trend, away from the Valley, is in our favor.
Additionally, a tropical cyclone impacting East Texas or Louisiana would put the Valley on the far western side. This would be mean hot, dry conditions thanks to subsidence or sinking air. Also, with this track, similar to Hurricane Grace last weekend to our south, high surf, minor coastal flooding, and dangerous rip currents would be expected.
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