Severe drought conditions extend across much of the region.
Below normal precipitation and above normal temperatures persisted across Deep South Texas during the month of March.
Dry conditions have persisted across the region during the past 6 months.
Soil moisture has become abnormally to excessively dry.
As a result, drought conditions over the region continue to worsen.
According to the United States drought monitor, severe drought conditions have now extended into much of Deep South Texas, with extreme drought conditions over the extreme northern sections of Brooks and Kenedy counties.
The drought conditions continue to mainly affect agricultural interests, including crops, pastures and grasslands.
Fire danger impacts: Wildfire danger is of great concern over portions of Deep South Texas. Ongoing dry weather conditions over the past 6 months have resulted in cured fuels across Deep South Texas.
According to the State of Texas Forest Service, current wildfire danger over western and northern portions of Deep South Texas is very high to extreme. Wildfire danger along the coastal sections is moderate to high.
The State of Texas Forest Service said the latest Keetch-Byram drought indices (KBDI) are currently 500 to 700 over much of the region. County burn bans are currently in effect for Zapata, Jim Hogg, Starr, Hidalgo, Willacy and Cameron counties.
Residents of Deep South Texas are urged to use caution when disposing of smoking materials, and refrain from outdoor burning activities.
Agricultural impacts: According to the Climate Prediction Center, soil moisture over Deep South Texas is abnormally to excessively dry.
According to the United States Department of Agricultural and Texas Agrilife Extension Service Agents, "Very short soil moisture, warm temperatures and windy conditions continued. Some early corn emerged. Field activity increased, but farmers were planting dry, hoping for some seed germination with applied irrigation. Cotton producers began planting and should finish soon. Supplemental feeding of livestock continued, and many producers needing hay found it hard to locate and expensive."
Daily evaporation rates over the lower Rio Grande Valley are averaging near a quarter to near half an inch.
Water restrictions: According to the State of Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ), there are currently 3 public water systems in Hidalgo county and one in Zapata county under a "water shortage watch."
Climate summary:
Brownsville: Brownsville records began 1878. The average temperature in Brownsville for March was 69.5 degrees; 0.7 degrees above normal. This is the 50th warmest March on record. Brownsville airport received 0.11 inches of rain in March; 0.82 inches below normal. This is the 16th driest March on station. As of April 7th, the year-to-date rainfall total for Brownsville is 3.16 inches below normal.
Harlingen: Harlingen records began 1911. The average temperature in Harlingen for March was 68.9 degrees; 0.1 degrees above normal. This is the 43rd warmest March on record. One record high was set on the 27th when the temperature reached 101 degrees. Harlingen airport received 0.23 inches of rain in March; 1.01 inches below normal. This is the 20th driest March in Harlingen. As of April 7th, the year-to-date rainfall total for Harlingen is 4.38 inches below normal.
McAllen: McAllen records began 1941. The average temperature in McAllen for March was 72.81 degrees; 2.0 degrees above normal. This is the 9th warmest March on record for McAllen. McAllen set a record high on the 27th when the temperature hit 102 degrees. McAllen airport received 0.38 inches of rain in March; 0.34 inches below normal. This is the 28th driest March on record. As of April 7th, the year-to-date rainfall total for McAllen is 2.52 inches below normal.
Precipitation/Temperature Outlook for April 4th through April 18th: Mid-level and surface riding will remain in control over Deep South Texas through April 4th. A strong mid level trough will then move across the central portion of the United States. This feature will bring a dry cold front through Deep South Texas on April 5th resulting in a return to near normal temperatures on April 6th and 7th.
Weak to moderate surface and mid level ridging will then rebuild over the Gulf Coast region maintaining dry and warm weather on April 8th and 9th.
Yet another strong mid-level trough will then push into the south central plains states on April 10th pushing another cold front into south Texas. This cold front will produce some isolated showers or thunderstorms across the region on the 10th.
Another mid-level closed low will then approach Texas from the Baja California area on April 11th and 12th. This will result in some better rain chances on April 12th and 13th with isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm activity.
Weak to moderate surface and mid level ridging will then rebuild over Deep South Texas resulting in drier weather from April 14th through April 18th. Near to above normal temperatures are expected across Deep South Texas from April 4th through April 18th. Normal highs across Deep South Texas for this upcoming period range from near 80 degrees along the immediate coastal areas to the middle 80s across the far western sections of Deep South Texas. Normal overnight lows for this same period range from the lower 60s across the inland areas to the middle 60s along the immediate coastal areas.
Any of the shower or thunderstorm activity that occurs throughout this upcoming two week period will likely result in only short term relief from the current drought conditions.
The Long Range Climate Outlook for the rest of April, May and June of 2009: Derived from guidance from the National Weather Service and the Climate Prediction Center, indicates that weak La Nina conditions will continue into the early Spring of 2009. However, data from the Climate Prediction Center indicates that the La Nina conditions will continue to weaken during the late Spring or early Summer months. As a result of the lingering weak La Nina conditions, below normal rainfall amounts will be expected across Deep South Texas through the end of April of 2009.
As we move into May and June of 2009, the combination of the weakening La Nina conditions, the approach of the upcoming 2009 tropical season and the increasing summer sea breeze activity may result in steadily increasing rain chances later this summer. Any rainfall activity that occurs through June 2009 will likely result in only short term relief from the ongoing drought conditions.
The current overall drought conditions around the area are expected to continue or possibly worsen through June of 2009. Above normal temperatures will be expected across Deep South Texas through June 2009.
Hydrologic Summary and Outlook: Falcon and Amistad reservoirs provide much of the water for the lower Rio Grande Valley. Abundant rainfall over the local watersheds during the summer of 2008 allowed for increase inflows into both reservoirs.
According to state of Texas Rio Grande Watermaster office, "All active accounts began 2009 with 100 percent usable balances. The reservoirs remain near or above normal conservation at this time. Deep South Texas remains in a unique situation at this point because both United States reservoirs are considered full and so are the majority of Mexican reservoirs in the Rio Grande basin."
Falcon storage is currently at 96 percent of normal. Lake levels continue to decrease as water demands increase due to peak irrigation season and increase demands from municipalities.
For more information about the severe drought conditions in Deep South Texas and across the country, click here.
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